After the US Federal Trade Commission moved to block Tapestry’s acquisition of Capri, Tapestry chief executive Joanne Crevoiserat went on an impromptu media tour. In one representative quote, she told The New York Times “it’s quite clear to us that they don’t understand how consumers shop today and they don’t understand the dynamics of a marketplace with no barriers to entry, constant influx of new competitors.” Many within the fashion industry, as well as some outside observers, agree (a popular theory is that FTC chair Lina Khan knows she’s unlikely to succeed in blocking deals like this, but the lawsuit threat alone will cause others to think twice before pursuing mega mergers).

Of course, Tapestry has a legal obligation to defend the deal in court as part of its merger agreement with Capri, and will no doubt do so again when executives speak to analysts on Thursday after releasing quarterly results. But, as Bernstein analyst Aneesha Sherman pointed out in a recent note, there’s plenty of wiggle room for Tapestry to walk away if it decides Michael Kors isn’t worth picking a fight with the US government. Language requiring “reasonable best efforts” to defend the deal isn’t as strict as other mergers. And either party can walk away if the deal’s closing is delayed past February 2025; with the FTC’s first hearing scheduled for September, that’s entirely possible.

There’s no reason to believe Tapestry actually wants to walk away; the company is riding high on its successful turnaround at Coach, and believes it can work the same magic at Capri’s struggling brands. But how the deal is discussed on the earnings call Thursday will be very carefully parsed.

Meanwhile, on the Upper East Side

This year’s Met Gala is feeling a little… cursed is too strong a word, but perhaps unlucky? Vogue and the Costume Institute couldn’t have predicted when they chose TikTok as lead sponsor in February that legislation to ban the app would suddenly pick up momentum again. The event is also a shiny target for unionised Condé Nast employees, who are at an impasse with the company over their first contract. And it’s a rare high-profile event these days that doesn’t draw pro-Palestinian demonstrations.

The odds any of this intrudes on the event itself remain low; picketers can be cordoned off, and brands have seen no blowback from working with TikTok since the clock started ticking on a potential ban.

The union is more of a wild card. Union organisers say they’re “ready to strike,” but haven’t specified any action around the Met Gala specifically. A work stoppage on Monday would effectively force attendees to pick a side just by walking up the steps. Anne Hathaway memorably walked off a Vanity Fair photo shoot in January in solidarity with the Condé Nast union’s work stoppage, and celebrities canceled appearances and spoke out in support of the writer’s strike last year.

It wouldn’t be the first time real world events intrude on the Met Gala bubble (including two years ago when the Supreme Court’s decision to strike down Roe v. Wade leaked just as Kim Kardashian was arriving on the red carpet). Still, the star power almost always overshadows everything else. This year will put that to the test.

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This week, we might get that rarest of things: a successful initial public offering.

Puig, the Spanish, family-owned conglomerate that counts Charlotte Tilbury, Paco Rabanne, Byredo and other brands in its portfolio, is scheduled to go public in Spain on May 3. The company is angling to raise €2.6 billion ($2.8 billion) at a €13.9 billion valuation, Bloomberg reports. While anything can happen, most signs point to the Puig family, which will retain a controlling stake, getting what they want.

Fashion and beauty don’t have a great track record when it comes to IPOs lately. Birkenstock and Amer Sports had bumpy receptions in the market despite owning red-hot brands. The consensus forming around Puig is that it may fare better than either of those companies. As The Business of Beauty executive editor Priya Rao recently laid out, the conglomerate’s focus on prestige beauty, its diversification and a sterling track record of acquisitions all bode well for a warm reception from investors. A demonstrated willingness to give non-family executives wide latitude to direct the business is also likely a factor.

The biggest question facing Puig is whether it’s large enough to compete with the big conglomerates that dominate luxury fashion and beauty. A $15 billion market capitalisation only sounds big until you consider that L’Oreal is nearly 17 times bigger. Having an extra €2.6 billion to spend on acquisitions and further scaling its brands will go a long way towards closing that gap.

A Victory Lap for Adidas

With luxury earnings mostly out of the way, we’re in a bit of a lull before the mass market brands have their turn. The big report this week is from Adidas, which has rebounded from lost cause to industry darling in record time.

There isn’t much suspense around the quarterly numbers, as Adidas said earlier this month that first-quarter sales and profits came in above forecast. The two biggest factors in its rapid turnaround are successfully disposing of most of its remaining Yeezy inventory and, more importantly, turning Sambas into the “it” sneaker of the moment. In doing so Adidas has borrowed a page from Nike’s playbook, and will no doubt pump out endless new twists on classic styles. Nike’s seen diminishing returns with this strategy, but the retro journey has just begun for Sambas and Gazelles. Now the brand just needs a court order barring conservative UK politicians from wearing them.

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Last month when Coachella tickets went on sale and did not immediately sell out, it touched off a bit of soul searching. The two-weekend music festival had, bit by bit and then all at once, built its identity as the influencer event of the year.

Those tickets did eventually sell, but there was still a lingering fear among the selfie set: if 150,000 people showed up in the California desert and their TikToks didn’t go viral, did Coachella really happen?

It’s a pressing question for fashion and beauty brands, too. Coachella has played host to some of the industry’s most over-the-top marketing activations over the years, and turned niche labels into Instagram sensations. Countless brands release “festival edits,” with a mix of new items and Coachella-friendly selections from their inventory (this year, prairie dresses and jorts are proving popular, while more dressed up styles, such as sequined dresses, are on the way out, according to retail analytics firm Edited). Festival sponsors make over gas stations, build party houses from scratch and host elaborate, all-day events with their own slates of musical artists. The Revolve Festival, hosted by the influencer-friendly online apparel brand since 2015, is a veritable institution at this point; the brand’s sales now top $1 billion.

This year, Revolve Festival is down to one day, from two (the status of the region’s gas stations remains unknown at press time). It’s contributing to a general sense that Coachella is less essential than it used to be. Music lovers, influencers and brands now have their pick of all-day concerts. Of retailers tracked by Edited, just one, Wolf & Badger, has released a Coachella edit, with others opting for a generic “festival edit,” albeit often with desert themes. Tecovas, a western wear brand that can thank Coachella in part for the surging popularity of its cowboy boots among non-cowboys, has no official presence at the festival, opting to sponsor the country-themed Stagecoach at the same venue later this month.

Coachella is also feeling the effects of changes in the marketing world, particularly in how influencers build and monetise their brands. Take Aimee Song, a Revolve Festival regular, whose Song of Style collection has been sold by the company since 2019. She is independently launching a new luxury knitwear line, Amiya, and says she wants the clothes to be the main attraction, rather than her Instagram feed. Coachella doesn’t feel like the right place to market $1,000 sweaters.

That’s not to say the festival is a flop. Plenty of fashion and fashion-adjacent brands will be on site, with Paper and Nylon magazines and True Religion hosting events, among others. Levi’s still sponsors the Neon Carnival dance party, and Nike will be pushing its newly released Air Max Dns.

And if you still question whether Coachella still has a unique ability to draw attention, check out the frenzy over reports that Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce were making the trek to see Friday’s headliner, Lana Del Rey. The couple definitely weren’t in the audience for the singer’s stops in Huntsville, Alabama or Burgettstown, Pennsylvania.

“I am a Coachella guy,” Kelce told People.

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It would be a bit much to credit the rebound at Calvin Klein entirely to a billboard of Jeremy Allen White in boxer briefs. Shares of parent company PVH, which also owns Tommy Hilfiger, had been climbing for weeks before the campaign’s Jan. 4 unveiling. Wall Street analysts are more likely to credit efficient inventory management and supply chain cost savings than a prestige tv star’s abs.

But as an example of how to breathe new life into an often overlooked brand, the ads were hard to beat. It’s hard to overstate how much people were talking about the campaign, and Calvin Klein: according to Launchmetrics, social media engagement was five times Bottega Veneta’s paparazzi-style ads, which were themselves held up as a benchmark for viral marketing success last year.

At The Business of Fashion’s technology summit earlier this month, Calvin Klein chief marketing officer Jonathan Bottomley laid out the strategy behind the campaign, which centres on an “entertainment mentality” where marketing both showcases the product and exists as something people will consume willingly, and not just because they’re forced to endure it to stream more of “The Bear.”

Bottomley also said “we believe in the marketing investments and the culture investments as business drivers.” On Monday, PVH reports fourth-quarter earnings. Thanks to a quirk in its corporate calendar, the results will cover the month of January, which means we’ll hopefully get a good read on whether all those clicks translated into revenue – and whether those ads inspired people to buy more than boxer briefs. In addition to boosting sales of its already popular basics, PVH is eager to nudge Calvin Klein upmarket. Why else would they have also dressed White in a custom tuxedo for the Golden Globes?

Also reporting results this week is Levi’s, which in many respects is where Calvin Klein was this time last year – a brand everyone knows and plenty of people love, but overly reliant on wholesale and at risk of fading into the woodwork. Last week, Levi’s unveiled its own campaign meant to refresh its image, featuring dancers in denim and a “the floor is yours” tagline meant to inspire viewers to recreate the campaign on their own feeds.

Unlike Calvin Klein, this week’s earnings won’t reflect the ad’s impact. But it’s unlikely to have the same effect: the first video, posted on Wednesday to Levi’s Instagram grid, has about 4,000 likes (the first White image on Calvin Klein’s grid has 1.8 million). Levi’s was probably hoping for a bigger moment, but the ad isn’t playing the same role as the White campaign, which in many ways was the capstone on a long-term effort to revitalise Calvin Klein, rather than an opening salvo. In any event, Beyonce may ride to the rescue with her “Levii’s Jeans” track on her just-released country album.

At BoF’s summit, Calvin Klein’s Bottomley opened by asking: “in a culture that is very flat, how do you create those spikes?” It’s a question few brands have figured out how to consistently answer.

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When Daniel Ervér was named chief executive of H&M Group in January, the appointment was widely received as a surprise, and not necessarily a good one. The company’s problems are well-documented at this point: H&M has struggled in a post-Shein world, occupying the rapidly shrinking middle between ultra-cheap online competitors and Zara’s “upscale” fast fashion.

Why, if the brand is so beset by problems it required the sudden ouster of its CEO, did it go with a relatively unknown insider? In interviews after his appointment, Ervér did little to clear up the confusion. He spoke to the need to “react quicker” to new trends, à la Shein, but also sell more high-priced items, like Zara.

Perhaps we’ll get some more concrete answers this week. H&M reports results for the three months ending Feb. 29 on Wednesday. Ervér isn’t wrong to take a few cues from rivals. Consumers clearly prefer Shein’s all the trends, all the time approach to H&M’s seasonal view on fashion. And while the chain has been closing stores to cut costs, its many brick-and-mortar locations remain a key advantage over the online-only competition. Zara-owner Inditex demonstrated as much earlier this month when it reported record sales of €35.9 billion ($39 billion) in 2023, up 10.4 percent. It also remains to be seen whether Ervér will have the same commitment to sustainability as his predecessor, Helena Helmersson, who aimed to pitch H&M as an unlikely (and often controversial) champion of green fashion. Pricey programmes to deliver on this ambition would be a tempting target for budget cuts.

That side of the business is probably safe though. For better or worse, Ervér, who has worked at H&M for nearly two decades, represents continuity, not change. Plus, fast fashion is currently villain No. 1 in European politics. France’s proposal to tax cheap clothes like cigarettes is the latest indication that rhetoric around the ecological costs of fast fashion is starting to have real teeth. Now is the time to burnish those sustainability credentials, not toss them.

Speaking of, the fate of Renewcell, a now-bankrupt H&M-backed fabric recycling start-up, will be decided this week. The company was seen as a pioneer in the field, and had scaled its production capacity, only to falter in face of uncertain demand. Bids are due on March 28.

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The activewear market is booming right now, and is expected to grow faster than fashion overall for years to come. And yet somehow, the category’s biggest players seem to be constantly in crisis.

Last week saw running shoe upstart On’s stock drop as it told investors it would grow sales by a mere 26 percent in the first quarter (while most companies would be thrilled with that number, On’s been on such a hot streak it counts as a disappointment). Under Armour founder Kevin Plank unexpectedly reclaimed the CEO role amid a bumpy turnaround. Li Ning was reportedly considering taking his namesake brand private. The less said about Allbirds, the better.

The common thread here is that the hot new thing quickly becomes old news. At the same time, the cost of reinvention can be staggering. Where a fashion brand can refresh itself with a new silhouette or a smart marketing campaign, activewear customers are often looking for new materials and performance-enhancing design, both of which are expensive.

This week, Nike and Lululemon, the two biggest activewear companies by market capitalisation, report results for the fourth quarter of 2023. Both have pinned their future success on innovation.

Nike is beset by problems to a degree not seen in decades. Sales are expected to grow a paltry one percent in its current fiscal year, which ends in May. The brand relies on a handful of classic styles to keep consumers hooked, with diminishing returns, and recent marketing campaigns have fallen flat. Nike’s professional sports business is also mired in controversy, with Major League Baseball players complaining about cheap-looking jerseys and see-through pants, and FC Barcelona threatening to walk away from a 25-year partnership.

This week is all about hitting — and preferably beating — that already low growth target (setting aside the pandemic and the 2009 recession, you have to go all the way back to 1999 to find a year when Nike performed so poorly). Chief executive John Donahoe, who has talked up innovation as the key to Nike’s turnaround plans (seriously, he used the word 20 times in the company’s December earnings call), will also need to show that R&D is resulting in products consumers actually want, and not just uniforms baseball players hate.

Lululemon almost has the opposite problem – it’s performed so well recent years that it’s becoming challenging to dream up new ways to grow. First there was the pandemic, which normalised the idea that athleisure could, and should, be worn everywhere. A big push into menswear also paid off.

The company will give its 2024 guidance along with its results, and investors will be looking to see if it can keep up the ambitious pace of recent years. That will depend on some old-school retail strategy – investment in bigger, better stores and category expansion – but also that elusive idea of innovation. Lululemon is constantly introducing products it says are better-performing, and better for the planet. To cite one example, the brand last month introduced a prototype for a shirt made from recycled nylon, and says it plans to transition all of its nylon apparel to recycled or renewable sources by the end of the decade. The question is whether consumers want any of that, or if the athleisure mindset has fully taken hold, in which case the smaller, trendier Alo Yoga becomes an appealing option.

You’d rather be Lululemon than Nike right now. But both companies are proof that, like sharks, even the biggest sportswear brands have to keep moving to survive.

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When the nominees and other assorted A-listers stride down the (thankfully, once again) red carpet at the Oscars on Sunday, many, if not most looks will be the product of careful negotiations between brands, agents, stylists and stars, with millions of dollars changing hands.

This is no secret, of course. Red carpet dressing has been big business going back to the 1990s. But it has swallowed up an ever-greater share of luxury brands’ marketing budgets in recent years. That’s partly down to the brands themselves getting bigger, which means they have more to spend, but also need more and more attention on their celebrity ambassadors to meaningfully move the sales needle. The decline of print and television advertising has also narrowed the options for where to stage a big moment (former BoF correspondent Lauren Sherman has an excellent rundown of how this all works on Puck’s The Town podcast).

Believe it or not, there is, in fact, a limit to how big the red carpet can get before the costs start to outweigh the benefits. And it’s possible we’ll look back on this year’s awards season as the moment we hit that threshold.

The most obvious reason is that, Miu Miu aside, most luxury brands aren’t growing sales by 80 percent annually anymore. The beancounters hold more sway when a label is no longer printing cash, and an obvious money pit like celebrity dressing is one place to cut costs.

Some caveats: we’re mostly talking about spending caps rather than a dramatic pullback, as after two-plus decades, few brands can afford not to play the game anymore. Any cuts apply mainly to lesser events rather than the Oscars, which is second only to the Met Gala in terms of media impact. The biggest brands, such as Chanel and Dior, aren’t hurting for cash, and having the biggest actors locked down is a key way they maintain their lead. Red carpet dressing is also integral to labels like Versace and Armani.

But for small and mid-sized brands, and struggling larger labels, some strategic adjustments may be necessary. Fortunately, there are ways to play the red carpet game without a Chanel-sized budget. Loewe has run neck-and-neck with the likes of Prada and Louis Vuitton in terms of social media buzz at some pre-Oscar events, according to data from TribeDynamics. The brand has focused its efforts on up-and-coming actresses like Greta Lee, social media favourites like Aubrey Plaza (whose Emmys dress featuring a giant pin made the rounds on Instagram) and tabloid fixtures like Taylor Russell (the Canadian actress, who is dating Harry Styles, wore a backless Loewe dress to the BAFTAs).

Menswear is another budget-friendly option. It’s rare for a man to crack the list of most-talked-about looks on social, according to a Launchmetrics analysis of this year’s awards shows (Pedro Pascal being the exception that proved the rule, several times over). But Off-White, fresh off the Super Bowl, scored a minor hit with its powder-pink tux for “The Color Purple” nominee Colman Domingo at the Screen Actors Guild Awards. Burberry’s big pre-Oscar announcement was that it’s signed Barry Keoghan as an ambassador; the “Saltburn” star isn’t nominated for anything, but is widely seen as a next big thing in Hollywood, and has been getting plenty of attention for his unconventional red carpet looks this year.

If you’re looking for real proof the red carpet economy has maxed out though, look no further than this column, or the many like it you’ll find in competing publications. As any mob wife or coastal grandma will tell you, nothing says a trend has peaked like saturation media coverage.

Robert Williams contributed to this article.

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Some of the biggest mass fashion retailers report their fourth-quarter results this week (most luxury brands took their turn around the start of the month). We already know that holiday sales were stronger-than-expected at high-flying retailers like Abercrombie & Fitch and American Eagle; less so at struggling competitors. And after last week’s big shakeup at Macy’s, could other retailers be looking to make some major changes too?

Abercrombie & Fitch: How Long Can They Keep This Up?

Seriously, how are they doing it? The company, which was lumped in with Gap and other struggling mall brands not all that long ago, is on fire. In what was expected to be a weak holiday season for most retailers, sales grew in the mid-teens. The secret to Abercrombie’s success is basically just retail 101: figure out what your customers want, and sell it in just the right amount. The company’s stock, the best performing of any large US company last year, has continued to rise in 2024. Nothing lasts forever, but there aren’t any signs the party is winding down yet.

Speaking of brands that keep moving from high to high: Fellow mall rat American Eagle, which also had a blowout holiday season, reports Thursday. If your taste in red-hot brands run more luxe, Prada reports Thursday (and Miu Miu shows in Paris on Tuesday).

Foot Locker: But Also, Nike

The footwear seller has historically served as a de facto Nike showroom, with the sneaker brand representing about two-thirds of annual sales (and that’s actually down from recent years). Nike was mentioned 21 times in Foot Locker’s last earnings call (it’s a bit of a one-sided relationship; the retailer didn’t come up once when Nike executives last spoke to analysts). The symbiotic arrangement can make Foot Locker a good indicator for where Nike is headed; which shoes it sends to third-party retailers, and in what quantities, says a lot about thinking in Beaverton. This go-round is especially relevant, given Nike’s recent troubles, and the rapidly shifting landscape in the basketball category, a Foot Locker specialty.

Gap: Turning Around or in Traction?

We are starting to catch glimpses of what the Richard Dickson era at Gap will look like. Zac Posen’s appointment as creative director raised eyebrows (whether in excitement or confusion, you decide). Last week saw the debut of a new ad starring Tyla, a Grammy Award-winning, TikTok-viral South African musician who has never fronted a major fashion campaign that evokes that khaki commercial. A nostalgia-flecked brand remix certainly worked for Barbie, but comebacks in fashion are harder than in children’s toys. Then again, a Gap campaign that isn’t ignored or ruthlessly mocked counts as a victory these days, right?

Speaking of turnarounds, Victoria’s Secret reports results on Wednesday. The lingerie giant is something of a cautionary tale for Gap; the brand is edging away from its 2022 makeover, which failed to resonate with consumers.

Nordstrom: What Is the Future for Department Stores?

Last week, Macy’s new CEO announced that the chain would close 150 department stores and invest more in its luxury-focused Bloomingdale’s locations, a drastic move aimed at ensuring the company could survive an assault from activist investors, as well as the wider retail apocalypse. Nordstrom’s product mix is closer to Bloomingdale’s than Macy’s, but it faces many of the same problems, including declining foot traffic in some malls and shrinking margins in the always tough wholesale business. The company has dabbled in fixes ranging from small-format stores to closing unprofitable businesses (RIP Nordstrom Canada), and the closure of Macy’s stores may send some customers to rival department stores. But if things don’t turn around soon, the company may need to contemplate some drastic moves of its own, or risk becoming another activist investor target.

What Else to Watch for This Week

Sunday

Paris Fashion Week: Balenciaga, Valentino, Mugler

Monday

Paris Fashion Week: Stella McCartney, Zimmermann, Marine Serre, Sacai, Pierre Cardin, Coperni

Stitch Fix, Thredup report results

Tuesday

Paris Fashion Week: Chanel, Kiko Kostadinov, Miu Miu, Lacoste, Louis Vuitton

Oddity Tech, Ross Stores, Nordstrom report results

Wednesday

Foot Locker, Abercrombie & Fitch, Victoria’s Secret, The Honest Company report results

Thursday

Hugo Boss, Burlington, Prada, American Eagle, Gap report results

The Week Ahead wants to hear from you! Send tips, suggestions, complaints and compliments to brian.baskin@businessoffashion.com.

The Super Bowl didn’t always have such a prominent slot on the fashion calendar. In the not too distant past, sports were left to the sportswear brands. Even as basketball and football players began fronting luxury campaigns and turning pregame tunnel walks into menswear shows, American football resisted a makeover.

This year’s big game is shaping up to be the sport’s glow-up moment. Fashion and beauty will be everywhere Sunday night in Las Vegas. Boss released a capsule collection with the NFL. Commercial breaks are going to be stuffed with ads for E.l.f., CeraVe and other beauty brands (at $7 million for a 30-second spot). Taylor Swift is at the forefront of a WAG renaissance, as athletes’ partners prove to be the perfect vectors for brands looking to connect with football fans. Usher, this year’s halftime act, was all over Paris Fashion Week last fall and is fronting Skims’ latest men’s campaign. On Friday, Versace announced a partnership with Roc Nation, which produces the halftime show. Brands are even setting up gifting suites, as they would at a red carpet event.

The industry’s interest in the big game shouldn’t be exaggerated — Christian Cowan and Ludovic de Saint Sernin probably aren’t sweating whether guests will choose Super Bowl parties over their New York Fashion Week shows Sunday night.

But the Super Bowl has become a new tentpole in fashion brands’ efforts to capture the biggest possible audience by integrating themselves into every possible cultural event. It’s akin to Revolve’s annual takeover of Coachella, Tommy Hilfiger sponsoring a Formula One team and LVMH’s yet-to-be-revealed, but surely grandiose plans for the Paris Olympics. Pharrell’s tenure at Louis Vuitton, where the label is positioned as a “cultural brand” at the intersection of music, sports, art and entertainment, and also sells clothes, is the embodiment of this concept.

The payoff from successfully meeting the cultural moment can be huge. E.l.f.’s Super Bowl ad last year starring Jennifer Coolidge was a masterstroke, with an afterlife on social media and broadcast television long beyond the big game. E.l.f. can probably credit some of its stunning 85 percent growth last quarter to its big marketing swing. When Rihanna wore the MM6 Maison Margiela X Salomon Cross Low sneakers during her halftime performance last year, it cemented the trail running shoe’s ascension from niche sporting gear to a crossover hit.

The question ahead of this year’s Super Bowl is not whether marketing around the game will work for fashion, but what took so long.

What Else to Watch for This Week

Sunday

Super Bowl kickoff is at 6:30 p.m. ET

NYFW: Ulla Johnson, Altuzarra, Sandy Liang, Area and Jason Wu (these last two at the same time!), Christian Cowan, Ludovic de Saint Sernin

Monday

NYFW: Carolina Herrera, Coach, Puppets & Puppets, Sergio Hudson, Tory Burch, LaQuan Smith

Tuesday

NYFW: Gabriela Hearst, Michael Kors, Batsheva, Luar

Wednesday

NYFW: Brandon Maxwell, Thom Browne

The New Look, a 10-part series dramatising the rise of Christian Dior, premieres on Apple TV+

EssilorLuxottica reports results

Thursday

Crocs, Mytheresa, Hanesbrands report results

Friday

London Fashion Week: Dunhill, Fashion East, Chet Lo

Saturday

London Fashion Week: Richard Quinn, Simone Rocha, Erdem, Roksanda, Ahluwalia

The Week Ahead wants to hear from you! Send tips, suggestions, complaints and compliments to brian.baskin@businessoffashion.com.

“Soft landing” and luxury’s “normalisation” are buzzwords for the fashion industry’s outlook in 2024. What people are really saying with those terms is that, in a market that could charitably be described as “challenging,” strong brands will float, and the rest will sink.

Some of fashion and beauty’s biggest companies report quarterly and full year results this week. The stories they tell should set the pace for the coming months. Here are the key results to watch out for:

Kering: Is the bottom in sight?

The French luxury conglomerate had a rough 2023, with both Gucci and Balenciaga experiencing a slump in sales, and even the once-reliable Saint Laurent slowing down. Sales fell 3 percent on a comparable basis in the first nine months of the year. The fourth quarter results (set to be announced Thursday) cut off just before Sabato De Sarno-era Gucci product hit stores, but executives will surely face questions about how the whole project is going. It’s an open question whether the mixed reception among fashion insiders and critics will be shared by ordinary shoppers, or if shoppers with less-adventurous taste will welcome the break from Alessandro Michele’s quirky vision. Balenciaga, too, is positioning itself for a comeback, with Exhibit A being the Kim Kardashian-fronted campaign unveiled last month. Kering’s timing for its big turnaround projects is less than ideal, as consumers are much more selective about luxury purchases than they were even six months ago. Investors will be looking for reassurance that Gucci and Balenciaga can still make the cut with choosy shoppers.

Want to know more about the state of the luxury consumer? Hermès, which has had an easier time managing luxury’s normalisation, also reports results this week. Between Hermès, Kering, Richemont and LVMH (who reported figures in January), we will have a more or less complete picture of how the space is performing.

Estée Lauder: What’s the recovery plan?

The American beauty giant has appeared rudderless for much of the last couple years, with sales declining in five consecutive quarters. The company’s problems boil down to selling the wrong product in the wrong places: travel retail and prestige beauty aren’t the booming categories they once were. Chief executive Fabrizio Freda indicated in November that recovery will be a long-term project. But another bad quarter could fuel speculation that his days in the top job are numbered.

Want to know more about who’s up and who’s down in the beauty market? Most of Estée Lauder’s biggest rivals also report this week, including L’Oréal, Coty and Shiseido. So does E.l.f. Beauty, the low-priced upstart that’s been running circles around its established competition.

Tapestry: Are American consumers still spending?

The US consumer is being watched with intense interest, as policy makers seek to pull off a soft landing from strong growth and high inflation. The sort of upper-middle-class customers targeted by accessible luxury brands are under even greater scrutiny, as many have cut back on nonessential spending due to inflation. A brand like Coach, with its range of price points, product and distribution channels, is therefore an excellent indicator of who’s still shopping, and where. Owner Tapestry has pulled off the seemingly impossible and made Coach a little bit cool again, allowing it to charge higher prices even as rivals fall back into old discounting habits. The company is in the process of buying one of those rivals, Michael Kors-owner Capri, in a deal expected to close later this year.

Want to know more about how accessible luxury is performing? Ralph Lauren, another brand dealing with many of the same challenges as Tapestry and Capri, also reports this week.

VF Corp.: Keeping the activist investors at bay

The clock is ticking on the Vans turnaround. VF Corp. was a model of brand management for many years, building The North Face, Vans and Timberland into global names in their respective categories. But the heat has cooled on much of the Denver-based company’s portfolio in recent years, especially at Vans, where consumers seem tired of the product. Executives say they’re moving fast to right the ship, but two activist investors are pushing for bigger, bolder changes. That said, management and activists could converge, as both sides say they are keen to cut costs and dump non-core brands. With another weak quarter expected and VF’s stock trading near a 15-year low, something has to change.

What to check in on another brand in never-ending turnaround? Under Armour has also been trying for years to recapture the magic it had in the early 2010s. Analysts aren’t expecting any miracles this quarter, however.

What Else to Watch for This Week

Sunday

The Grammy Awards are held in Los Angeles

Monday

Estée Lauder reports results

Tuesday

Nykaa, VF Corp. and E.l.f. report results

Wednesday

Pandora, Coty report results

Thursday

Kering, Under Armour, Tapestry, Ralph Lauren, L’Oréal and Capri report results

Friday

New York Fashion Week begins: Helmut Lang, Collina Strada, 3.1 Phillip Lim, Prabal Gurung, Willy Chavarria, Kim Shui, Tommy Hilfiger, Bach Mai

Shiseido and Hermès report results

Saturday

Lunar New Year begins

NYFW: Badgley Mischka, Proenza Schouler, Eckhaus Latta, Anna Sui, Khaite, Fforme

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The comparisons between fashion’s latest initial public offering and the last one practically write themselves. Amer Sports, owner of Arc’teryx, Salomon and other sporty brands, which is expected to list in New York this week, and Birkenstock, which went public in October, both sell functional-looking gear with big fashion followings. They have similarly seen explosive growth in the post-pandemic craze for outdoorsy clothes and shoes. Birkenstock sought an $8.6 billion IPO valuation last year, Amer Sports is angling for $8.7 billion.

Investors should therefore be wary of getting over their (Amer-owned Atomic brand) skis. Birkenstock shares fell on their debut, a sign its trendiness in fashion circles had failed to translate in the market, where future performance matters more than what’s in style today. The stock has risen since then, but it’s been a bumpy ride. Last week, the company warned of lower profits as it embarks on an expensive global expansion, sending the company’s market capitalisation below $8.6 billion once again.

The parallels only run so far. Amer Sports has a key advantage over Birkenstock right in its name. Activewear is the place to be right now: it’s a fast-growing market where the incumbent, Nike, is unusually vulnerable. Those conditions are why Swiss running shoe brand On is one of the few recent fashion IPOs trading above its debut price. Similarly, Deckers, which owns Hoka and Ugg, is on a never-ending hot streak, with shares nearly tripling over the last three years (Deckers conveniently will report quarterly results next week).

Amer has made moves to extend its recent run, such as reducing its reliance on wholesale and investing in both its core, technical offerings alongside the more fashionable items. Still, before going public, Amer Sports should be asked the same question as Birkenstock: Does that $8.7 billion valuation price in only some of the potential upside for Salomon and Arc’teryx? Or does the IPO represent the company’s Peak Performance (another ski brand in their portfolio; seriously, the puns write themselves with this one).

What Else to Watch for This Week

Sunday

LVMH Watch Week begins in Miami, running through Feb. 1

Monday

Copenhagen Fashion Week begins, running through Feb. 2

Tuesday

Eurozone reports fourth-quarter GDP figures

Wednesday

H&M and Zegna report results

US Federal Reserve announces interest rate decision, with no changes expected

Thursday

Canada Goose, Deckers, Skechers and Columbia Sportswear report results

Black History Month begins (US)

Eurozone reports January inflation, December unemployment

Friday

Apple releases its Vision Pro VR headset

US reports unemployment data for January

The Week Ahead wants to hear from you! Send tips, suggestions, complaints and compliments to brian.baskin@businessoffashion.com.

Haute couture shows start in Paris this week. The ultra-expensive, handcrafted looks on display there are among the few luxury items brands can still count on their customers to buy these days.

The category is off to a grim start this year, with a slew of bleak sales and profit warnings from brands such as Burberry and Hugo Boss. The slowdown appears to be global, and driven by a pullback from aspirational shoppers who are most vulnerable to inflation and economic uncertainty (quiet luxury purveyor Brunello Cucinelli and high-end jewellery focused Richemont have fared better as they cater to the wealthiest consumers, the reason couture labels likely also have little to fear from the current moment). Though inflation is coming under control in most major economies, it may take some painful discounting to lure those entry level customers back into stores.

LVMH’s fourth-quarter results on Thursday will provide the definitive read on the state of luxury in 2024. The conglomerate has the biggest window into just about every geography and strata of the market, whether it’s how entry-level Louis Vuittion handbags are selling in China, appetite for Dior couture in the Middle East or global beauty sales at Sephora.

Expect a mix of optimism and caution: Loro Piana’s sales are almost certainly surging right alongside Cucinelli’s, and perhaps executives can make the case for modest improvement in the US and China at megabrands Louis Vuitton and Dior. Among LVMH’s smaller labels, Celine and Loewe are starting to gain critical mass commercially.

Investors have low expectations. LVMH shares are trading close to the lows they hit after reporting a shock slowdown in sales growth in October. A strong showing will likely lift the entire category. Another weak report will be interpreted as a sign luxury brands haven’t yet hit bottom.

What Else to Watch for This Week

Sunday

Paris men’s shows conclude with Sacai, Rhude, GMBH and others.

Monday

Haute Couture Week begins with Schiaparelli, Dior and Giambattista Valli

Tuesday

Couture Week: Chanel, Giorgio Armani Privé

New Hampshire presidential primary; Donald Trump will all-but lock up the Republican nomination with a strong showing here.

Wednesday

Couture Week: Elie Saab, Jean Paul Gaultier, Valentino

Tod’s reports results

Thursday

LVMH and Levi’s report earnings

Couture Week: Fendi, Maison Margiela

First reading on fourth-quarter US GDP

The Week Ahead wants to hear from you! Send tips, suggestions, complaints and compliments to brian.baskin@businessoffashion.com.